The prison population is projected to increase, with a central estimate of 94,400 by March 2025 and a range of 93,100 to 106,300 by March 2027. This projected long-term increase is predicated on several factors, including increasing police officer numbers (which could increase charge volumes and in turn prison demand), and changes in sentencing policy to keep the most serious offenders in prison for longer.
Projections account for best available evidence, but there is considerable uncertainty around how the courts will recover from COVID-19 backlogs, the impact of the additional police officers, and the future crime mix. Any differences in assumptions for other factors such as sentencing behaviours and future changes in policy will all result in variation from these projections.
The total prison population for March 2025 is now (in the central scenario) estimated to be about 1,900 lower than in the 2021 publication. This is because the latest projection reflects the most recent assumptions around demand in the Criminal Justice System and how the Crown Court might continue to work through outstanding cases. These assumptions around future behaviour of the system have been informed by the latest available operational data and agreed between stakeholders at the Home Office and MoJ. The prison population of adult males, adult females, children (15- to 17-year-olds) and offenders aged 50 years and over are all expected to increase over the projection period due to the same underlying factors.
